Suck for Luck: handicapping the contenders
Like it or not, it's going to be one of the big sub-plots of this year's NFL season. May as well have a look.
THE FRONTRUNNERS
Indianapolis Colts 2:1 -- The Texans left them shivering in a puddle of rapetears, and the whole house of cards could be poised to collapse. In addition to missing Captain Endorsement, they also lost their best coaches over the off-season, OL coach Howard Mudd and OC Tom Moore. Those guys were highly underrated cogs in the Indy machine-- HC Jim Caldwell is a flunky by comparison. If the bolts in Manning's neck don't get the job done, this officially looks like the end of an era, which could leave them in prime position to grab the supposed Next Great Thing.
Miami Dolphins 5:2 -- Chad Henne is their QB, and Reggie Bush is supposed to be their starting running back. Their other back is already dinged up. Yea. And they play in a nasty division-- Buffalo should surpass them this year. They just suck, flat out. They were ready to transition regimes this year, but brought back the lamest possible duck when they couldn't get their guy. Next year they'll inevitably throw a dumptruck of cash at some big name like Cowher to come rebuild around a high first round QB-- the only question is whether it's Luck or one of the others.
Seattle Seahawks 3:1 -- Tarvaris Jackson's going to get it done behind that line. . . with those "weapons?" Yea, no. They're going to get killed. A weak division's the only thing that might save them, and the only reason they're longer odds than Miami. If Pete Carrol wants to stick in the NFL this time, he's going to have to get serious about finding an answer at QB pretty soon. Jackson still has some upside, but the odds of him developing into a QB you can go deep into the playoffs with are slimmer than a bulemic meth-head.
THE FIELD
Cleveland Browns 9:1 -- They reportedly like Colt McCoy's potential, but he's just not the type of talent that makes you pass on a player like Luck. Losing to the Bengals is a very discouraging sign in a division that also has Pitt and Baltimore. These guys don't have anything close to the wideouts needed to field a legit NFL passing attack, and it's going to be tough for them to be competitive. They could easily be near the top of the draft. Of course, with their luck (hehe), they'll end up picking second with Miami at number one.
Oakland Raiders 10:1 -- Probably lost whatever slight momentum they were building when they fired their coach and lost a handful of key players to free agency. Jason Campbell is the white Kyle Orton, and Pryor is a project who might get moved to wide receiver. This franchise needs a player like Luck the way most people need booty. Winnable division games and a few big weeks from McFadden could prove to be their worst enemy.
Kansas City Chiefs 21:2 -- Getting beat the **** down by Buffalo-- at home-- is rarely an indicator of good things to come. Haley may as well have saved them the trouble and just fired Weiss instead of himself-- Fat Charley propping up Sand Cassel was the only thing keeping that franchise afloat. Weiss will probably be back as the HC next year. Maybe they'll see if he can re-invent Cassel again, but they might have to David Garrard him if Luck's available. That contract is almost impossible to justify.
Denver Broncos 14:1 -- I honestly think we're more likely to be in the suck for Barkley-Lindley-whoever range, worst case scenario, but we at least gotta make the list with our record from last year and our QB situation being what it is. Elway is the wildcard. How much does he really believe in Tebow? If this season does go south, a QB phenom from Stanford might be hard for the Duke to pass up.
Minnesota Vikings 17:1 -- Their offense is Adrian Peterson and one skinny receiver with migraines. That O-line's going to fall off a cliff sometime soon, and the defense is no longer good enough to carry the load consistently. They could easily be the doormat of a tough division this year. The investment in Ponder obviously makes them less likely candidates, but don't kid yourself-- they'd trade his ass in a heartbeat if they found themselves in position to land such a superior prospect.
Cincinnati Bengals 20:1 -- Same situation as Minnesota. Not top candidates, but they could still be in the running with a few bad breaks. Andy Dalton simply isn't a player you pass on Luck for-- Mike Brown may be painfully cheap, but that certainly doesn't mean he's stupid enough to turn down a potential gold mine if someone happens to offer him one.
Jacksonville Jaguars 22:1 -- They could be ****ed if this proves to be the year Jones-Drew's knees cry uncle. I bet Luke McCown is fully capable of stinking up the joint worse than Kerry Collins, even if their defense can never be quite as spectacularly bad as Indy's might this year. They'd trade Gabbert in a hot minute for the lifeline that a potential Manning-like prospect could provide.
San Francisco 49ers 25:1 -- Probably good enough in a bad division to be out of the picture without a few bad breaks, but they're not exactly New England or Pittsburgh. Alex Smith will finally run out of lives in SF this year, and Kaepernik is an intersting project with a lot of upside, at best. I can't see Harbaugh passing on the chance to have Luck at the next level if the opportunity did arise.
DARKHORSES
Washington Redskins 40:1 -- Unlikely that a Shanahan team finishes in the running without a few significant injuries, but Mike is aggressive enough to make a bold move if he is in range. The wheels might come off once the league gets some film of Rexy in the Shenanigans system, but I expect them to stake themselves to enough wins early to be out of it. They're at least worth mentioning, though-- that division is flat nasty, you can get beat down if you slip. And you're always looking to improve when you have the QBs they do.
Detroit Lions 50:1 -- Plain and simple-- another injury to Stafford could be their entry ticket into this lottery. They're not in it as long as he stays healthy. They are only a year removed from a four-win campaign, though, and have historically been a snakebit franchise. If Matt's shoulder gets explosed this year, they could potentially find themselves back in the dumpster, scrambling for his replacement.
Dallas Cowboys 70:1 -- Obviously looks wildly unlikely on the surface. But with an otherwise very talented roster, could notorious gambler and egomaniac Jerruh Jones be prodded into giving up a reverse-Herschel type deal if he becomes convinced that Romo just isn't good enough to consistently compete with the big boy teams? Probably not, but you need at least one outlier to set the parameters. . .
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Originally Posted by silkamilkamonico
